What’s been interesting over the last couple of days — besides seeing the surge of enthusiasm for Kamala Harris and her Presidential campaign — is also watching her surrogates on cable news, particularly those essentially auditioning to be the Vice President. There are a few of these people that I wasn’t that familiar with, and I’ve become a big fan (among them, Colorado Governor Jared Polis, “a 49-year-old balding gay Jew from Boulder”).
The thing about Vice Presidential candidates, however, is that while we love to speculate and talk up the pros and cons, they tend not to matter that much come election day. There really are only a few criteria when choosing a running mate: 1) Will they be an effective cheerleader for the Presidential candidate? 2) can they pull in a state or two in the Electoral College, and 3) do no harm.
Donald Trump quickly realized that J.D. Vance does not fit the bill, especially after Biden’s resignation. He’s charmless, he’s already proving to be repugnant to a ton of women, he’s a distraction to Trump’s message, and he’s not even popular in his own home state, which was already basically a red state anyway. Trump had hoped to send Vance to the Rust Belt states to help him win them over, but it’s increasingly looking like the more time Vance spends on the campaign trail, the more he hurts the ticket.
Kamala Harris obviously wants to avoid that, and it feels fairly evident from the top candidates that, at the very least, they won’t cause any harm to her campaign. But which is most likely to help?
Gretchen Whitmer — The Governor of Michigan says she’s not interested in being a vice presidential candidate, and I believe her. I think she’d be a great VP, but I also think she’d be great in another role in the administration. If Kamala loses, she’s probably the 2028 frontrunner. In the meantime, she is popular enough that she can do a lot of good for Harris as the Governor and co-chair of the Harris campaign. Also, while I love the idea of two women on the ticket, the party will probably play it more conservatively. She’s an unlikely running mate. (Odds: 20-1)
Josh Shapiro — It’s not much of a secret that Shapiro is my preferred VP candidate and very likely the future of the party. This guy has a 19 percent disapproval rating in Pennsylvania, unheard of in a country as polarized as ours in one of the most polarized battleground states in America. Pennsylvania is a must-win for Harris. Shapiro can help her carry Pennsylvania. He’s also a Jewish politician who, again, is not polarizing in a state where the other major figure, Senator Fetterman, very much is (I loathe Fetterman). If the Middle East becomes a crucial issue in this campaign, Shapiro can effectively speak to it: He’s a Jewish Democrat who understands that it is OK to criticize the policies of Israel and that it’s not OK to affix the policies of Israel to every Jew in America. This is the person I want representing Jews during a time of rising antisemitism. He also has a powerful counter to Trump’s doom-and-gloom, apocalyptic rhetoric: “Stop shit-talking America.” (Odds: 5-1)
Tim Walz — Honestly, I’d never heard much about this guy before this week, and when I looked at his picture, I thought: Does he need to be that much of an old white guy? But then I heard him speak, and like Polis in Colorado, he’s candid and engaging and funny and calls out the Republican ticket for what it is: Just weird. He’s a fantastic cheerleader for the campaign and a guy I’m really happy to have in the party, but I don’t think he’s the right choice. (Odds: 18-1)
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Mark Kelly — Everyone keeps insisting that the Arizona Senator checks off all the boxes, and boy does he: The beloved astronaut husband of Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who was shot and nearly killed in an assassination attempt. Kelly, who is from a border state, can also speak to the immigration issue better than any of the other potential VP choices. He’d be hugely popular, and how much fun would it be to see this guy in a debate with J.D. Vance, who uses a racist dog whistle to criticize Kamala Harris, saying that she’s done nothing but accept a government check over the last 20 years. This guy has been accepting government checks all his life. I dare Vance to say something about that. He could also help Harris win Arizona. Alas, Harris can win without picking up Arizona, but she can’t win without Pennsylvania. I think he’s probably the second choice. (Odds: 7-1)
Pete Buttigieg — Whenever I see Buttigieg on television, I cannot help but think, almost wistfully, that he’s probably the most skilled, well-spoken politician in America but that he will never be President. He could dismantle J.D. Vance in 30 seconds flat, and make an absolute mockery of Donald Trump, but it’s almost like he’s too smart. I 100 percent believe that America will elect an openly gay President in my lifetime, but they won’t elect a guy this politically skillful. And he doesn’t bring anything to the ticket that he can’t already bring as Transportation Secretary. If Harris wins, however, she should give him a bigger role in her Administration. (22-1)
Andy Beshear — I love this guy, love his Southern accent, and can’t believe he’s well-liked enough to be elected governor of Kentucky as a Democrat. He must be good, and from what I’ve seen of him on cable television, he very much is a guy who can appeal to independents and maybe even some Republicans while also taking J.D. Vance to task for his negative vision of the country. If Harris had a five-point lead and was looking to run up the score, this is absolutely the guy she should pick. But the race is too close and Kentucky is too far out of reach for Harris. (Odds: 18-1)
Roy Cooper — This is completely unfair because I don’t know Roy Cooper — but then again, neither do most Americans — but this guy looks like a Republican. I’m sure that works to his advantage in North Carolina, where he is governor. I’m also sure that it’d help Harris pull in some independent and conservative voters. He has a ton of experience, and if this were solely about choosing the person most qualified in the event that Harris needed replacing, he’d be a good choice. He is the ideal “do no harm” candidate, but he also has the least upside. (Odds: 15-1)
J.B. Pritzker — An attack dog billionaire from a dark blue state? He’s probably a good Presidential candidate and a nice counter to Trump, but as a running mate, he doesn’t bring much aside from a lot of money. Harris hasn’t had a problem fundraising so far. Illinois is already in the bag for Democrats, and I feel like Harris is trying to create a positive campaign and would prefer someone who can kill them with kindness, like Beshear, Walz, or Shapiro. (Odds: 30-1)
My money is on Mark Kelly. You left Navy fighter pilot off his resume. Which in addition to being an astronaut basically makes him Captain America. Mark Kelly is literally who kids want to be when they grow up. A fighter pilot/ astronaut/ senator, m’dude IS career day. And we’d get the bonus of Gabby Giffords as Second Lady, who I’m sure will put her platform to good use.
Mark Kelly isn't a Governor.
Josh Shapiro called Pro-Palestinian protesters anti-semitic and urged universities, include U of Penn, to step on their first amendment rights. He is not someone that will turn the heat down on the Israel-Palestine issue for those concerned Dems are too comfortable with Palestinian genocide.