Democrats Kick Election Night Ass

This is why we don't trust polls

In the past week, there have been a few polls that have been troubling for Democrats, including one showing that Donald Trump would trounce Joe Biden in swing states in next year’s election. Of course, that same poll shows that 22 percent of Black voters and 45 percent of Gen Z voters would vote for Trump. If that sounds off, it’s probably because it is.

One need look no further than last night’s election victories to see that the Democratic Party is not in as much trouble as the news media would have us think. Last week, polls showed a dead heat in Kentucky in the race for Governor, and the concern was that an unpopular Joe Biden might drag down a popular governor. Democrat Andy Beshear won handily in a deep red state. His opponent, Daniel Cameron, by the way, was endorsed by Donald Trump.

In Virginia, meanwhile, at the beginning of the night, the media was positing that the Republicans could complete a takeover of state politics by winning the state senate away from Democrats. Democrats not only maintained their majority in the state senate, they took back a majority in the House. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin will not sweep into the 2024 primary field at the last minute and defeat Donald Trump, as some had secretly hoped. He may not even make it to 2028. And Virginians do not have to worry about an abortion ban anytime soon.

Speaking of which, in Ohio — which has been steadily trending red — voters chose to enshrine the right to abortion in their Constitution, handing liberals another major victory on reproductive rights and ensuring that the issue will remain front and center in 2024. The issue won by double digits. They also voted in Ohio to legalize marijuana. It becomes the 24th state to do so. Meanwhile, there are efforts to get similar abortion questions put on the ballots in 2024 in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, three of which are swing states.

It was a huge night for Democrats, notwithstanding the loss of Democrat Brandon Presley in the Mississippi Governor’s race. The fact that it wasn’t called until late in the evening in one of the reddest states in the country felt akin to a moral victory. Eight years ago, the Republican candidate for Governor won in Mississippi by 34 points.

Speaking of Trump, aside from congratulating the Mississippi governor, he’s been uncharacteristically quiet today.

Meanwhile, most in the media — while acknowledging it was a big night for Democrats — insist that it was despite Joe Biden instead of because of him. I will say this about Joe Biden: I don’t think he’s a hugely popular President, but I also believe that the same polls that have been wrong about everything else are also wrong about how “deeply” unpopular Joe Biden is. I’m not exactly the ideal test case — a middle-aged white guy in a blue state — but I don’t know a single person in my life who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and won’t vote for him again in 2024. I’ve never seen anyone in our comments section suggest they would change their vote or even sit this one out. I see a lot of people complaining about the theoretical voter who does decide to stay home, but I’ve never actually met one of those hypothetical voters. I wonder if the only person who has is the dude who runs the NYTimes/Siena poll?

A couple of other notes: Gabe Amo will be the first person of color to sit in the House of Representatives from Rhode Island; Democrats expanded their state legislative majorities in New Jersey; and Democrats expanded their majority on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to a 5-2 advantage.

How were local elections in your areas? The Portland, Maine, mayoral race is heading to a ranked-choice voting count this morning. However, the more conservative Democrat — a former sheriff — holds a sizable lead over the two more progressive Democrats, likely owing to the rising homeless problem in our city.