Let's Talk about the NYTimes/Siena Poll of Swing States

Total horseshit

A lot of pundits are talking about a new poll that has Democrats terrified. According to a NYTimes/Siena poll, Democrats should be worried about the upcoming election. The latest poll has shown Independent women support the Republicans over Democrats by 18 points — that’s a 32-point shift since last month! Also, 18 percent of Black people suddenly support Republicans, only 47 percent of women say they will vote for a Democratic candidate, and if that’s not frightening enough, a whopping 40 percent of voters 18-29 support Republicans. The Gen-Zers are turning on the Democratic party!

If those numbers scare you, I have a confession: Those numbers come from an NYTimes/Siena poll in October 2022, two weeks from election day. You may recall that Democrats lost their shit over that poll, that pundits were pulling their hair out trying to figure out why Republicans suddenly had so much Black support, and op-eds excoriated Gen-Z for becoming Republican.

The poll was bullshit. Two weeks later, there was no red wave. The Republicans barely hung onto the House during an election where the party out of office typically takes back vast numbers of seats. Eighteen percent of Black people didn’t vote for Republicans in that election — 5 percent did, which is about the same as every other year. Forty percent of 18-29 year-old voters did not vote for Republicans, either: Only 31 percent did, less than in 2020. There was no significant shift among female voters, either: 51 percent voted for Democrats, not the 47 percent that the poll suggested. That poll also showed an overall 49-45 advantage for Republicans.

That poll was wrong. It was flat-out wrong, and it came only two weeks before the midterms. All of which is to say: This other NYTimes/Siena poll floating around right now that shows Biden losing five out of six swing states in 2024? It is bullshit. Twenty-two percent of Black voters in swing states are not going to vote for Donald Trump. The same polls show that 46 percent of Gen-Z’rs between 18-29 in swing states plan to vote for Trump. Also, there are 17 percent of those registered voters who won’t say who they’re voting for, say they will vote for someone else, or say they won’t vote at all. Does anyone buy that a year out?

Polls are meaningless. Polls a year away are double meaningless. Polls a year away based on voters under the age of 30 who will answer a phone call from an unknown number are triple meaningless. NYTimes/Siena polls are the most meaningless of all!