The Democratic Party Needed Joe Manchin More Than It Disliked Joe Manchin

His exit is a big loss for the party

West Virginia Senator and perpetual thorn in the side of the Democratic Party, Joe Manchin, announced yesterday that he would not seek another term in the Senate. The announcement elicited a mixed reaction from most Democrats, who rightfully blame Manchin (and Kyrsten Sinema) for Joe Biden’s inability to push through his entire agenda when Democrats controlled the Senate, the House, and the White House for two years.

The reality is Manchin is a pain in the ass, thwarted several of Biden’s legislative efforts, and prevented the Dems from eliminating the filibuster. But he was also the best we would ever get out of West Virginia. There’s a good chance that Manchin would have lost in 2024 anyway, but that’s how many felt in 2018 when the Democrats had to strong-arm him into running again. The truth is, whoever replaces Manchin will be a far worse alternative. West Virginia is not a purple state. It is deep red, and Manchin held his seat by virtue of only his name recognition. Right now, the odds are the seat will go to Jim Justice, a former Republican turned Democrat turned MAGA Republican.

There’s some middling concern that Joe Manchin may challenge Joe Biden for President in 2024. That’s not going to happen. He’d fare better than Dean Phillips, but not by much. He can’t raise money, he is not particularly well known nationally, and he’s 76, not much younger than Biden and Trump. The No Labels party has already announced that they will be running a Republican at the top of the ticket, and it’s only on the ballot in 12 states, anyway. There may be a centrist candidate who can win independents and the moderate members of either party, but Joe Manchin ain’t it.

The more significant downside to Manchin’s exit is what it will mean for the Senate in 2024. The Democrats have a narrow 51-49 margin in the Senate (because three Independents caucus with Democrats), and the numbers are already against the Democrats next year. There are 33 Senate elections. Democrats or Independents hold twenty-three seats compared to only ten held by Republicans. To maintain control of the Senate if Biden wins, the Democrats can only lose one seat. If Biden loses, the Democrats cannot lose any seats.

They’ve already lost West Virginia.

There are only three legitimate toss-up seats, and Democrats or Independents hold all three: Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Jon Tester in Montana. Sinema, running as an Independent, is not going to win. Still, Ruben Gallego looks good as a Democrat against Kari Lake or in a three-way race between Galego, Lake, and Sinema. I think that Sherrod Brown holds (most polls look good for him), while it will be a tough, tough race for Tester in a red state.

Even assuming — and it’s a huge assumption — that Democrats pick up all three and hang on to all their other seats (another big if), they realistically need another win to assure control of the Senate. There are only two seats held by Republicans that have even an outside chance of flipping: Ted Cruz in Texas and Rick Scott in Florida. We’ve been saying that Texas is going to turn purple for years. However, we’re probably still years away, and as unpopular as Ted Cruz is, if Beto couldn’t beat him at the height of his popularity, Democrats are going to have to get creative to have a shot in hell. I’m not sure that Colin Allred — the Democrat leading the pack — is the person who is finally going to unseat Cruz.

Likewise, Rick Scott is not popular in Florida, but that state is trending red, and it’s been difficult to find a formidable challenger. It’s bad enough in Florida that the Democratic party made overtures to NBA legends Dwyane Wade and Grant Hill earlier this year. Neither got into the race, which essentially leaves former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell to save the Senate for Democrats. If everything breaks toward Democrats in 2024, she may have a chance.

It makes for a 2024 election that’s already stressful for Democrats. Manchin probably wouldn’t have won in West Virginia, but he also had a better chance than the Democrats against an incumbent in Texas. It’s also just like Joe Manchin to wait until November to announce he’s dropping out, leaving little time for the party to find a competitive replacement.