The VP Debate, Harris's Economic Policy, and the State of the Race for Senate

Plus, some polling news

The Harris Campaign

Tomorrow in North Carolina, VP Harris will outline some of her new economic ideas, including legislation to prevent price gouging. According to NBC News, the policy would establish "clear rules of the road to ensure that big corporations can’t unfairly exploit consumers to run up excessive corporate profits on food and groceries.”

— Vice Presidential Candidate Walz has agreed to debate J.D. Vance on October 1st. Vance has also agreed and offered to debate Walz on September 18th, as well, the day that Donald Trump will be sentenced. Why would he want to debate that day, I wonder?

— There was reporting from the Washington Post yesterday that RFK, Jr., reached out to the Harris campaign and offered to endorse her in exchange for a position in her administration (he did the same with the Trump campaign last month). They did not respond, and since then, RFK Jr. has changed his tune. "I have no plans to endorse Kamala Harris for President. I do have a plan to defeat her," he posted to X. That’ll be difficult — he couldn’t get on the ballot in New York and may actually have a campaign that’s worse than Trump’s lately. Get your man, Cheryl.

— The Biden/Harris Administration struck a deal with the drug companies to significantly reduce the prices of 10 of Medicare’s most popular and costliest drugs. Taxpayers will save $6 billion a year, and older adults will save $1.5 billion a year in prescription drug costs. Joe is getting things done! (Not one Republican voted for this legislation, by the way).

— Speaking of Joe, he will appear today with Harris in Maryland to discuss the new prescription drug plan. I also feel like the media (and Trump) are trying to create friction between Harris and Biden, but it’s not working (although Biden clearly doesn’t care for Pelosi anymore).

— Inflation is down to 2.9 percent (the first time it fell below 3 percent since the pandemic), and retail sales last month were surprisingly up by 1 percent, and the stock market has regained all of its August losses. Fears of a recession have subsided.

The Trump Campaign

Trump held a rally (at a fairly small, 2,000-seat venue with a number of empty seats) in North Carolina yesterday, where he called Harris “crazy” and “stupid” in a speech that was ostensibly about the economy.

— Trump will deliver another press conference today at his place in New Jersey. The media, no doubt, will cover the whole damn thing. He will say nothing new, he will lie, and he will call Harris and Walz names. These press conferences do not help him, and while I think it’s ridiculous that the cable news networks continue to carry them, it’s not like the free exposure is improving his standing. They’re mostly boring. I think we’re all just tired of it.

— There’s yet another quote out this week that emphasizes how little regard J.D. Vance has for women. He agreed, in a 2020 podcast, that grandmothers raising their grandkids is "the whole purpose of the postmenopausal female." He knows how to charm the postmenopausal females and childless cat ladies, doesn’t he?

Polling

According to the Cook Political Report, Harris is now leading (or tied, in Georgia) in every single swing state except for Nevada. Trump only holds a 3-point lead in Florida over Kamala Harris (within the margin of error). North Carolina (where Harris will deliver a speech tomorrow) is in play. For what it’s worth, Harris is only down by six in Texas now.

Harris has also been a huge boon to down-ballot races. If Harris wins, most expect the Democrats to also take the House. Counterintuitively, the path toward retaking the House runs through California and New York, and Harris is helping bring out younger voters and people of color in those districts and adding money to the coffers. The Democrats only need to flip four seats.

The other good news is that the Democrats in the Senate have improved their numbers — sometimes dramatically — since Harris took over.

Unfortunately, the Democrats are still unlikely to hold the Senate. The map isn’t in their favor — they can only lose two seats. They’re going to lose West Virginia, where Joe Manchin vacated his seat. The Democrats are down by 30 points. That leaves control of the Senate up to Jon Tester in Montana, a deeply red state where Tester is down by two to six points, according to the most recent polls (That’s Tester in the header photo! Vote for that man, Montana!) It’s tough. And there are no real opportunities for Democrats to flip a seat except maybe in Florida, where Rick Scott holds a four-point lead over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

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