Winning 98 out of 99 counties (and basically only losing that county by one vote) is exactly the kind of firepower Trump is looking for to proclaim his inevitability.
He'll scream up and down how he won 51% of the vote and destroyed the competition. But the fact of the matter is only 100,000 Iowans showed up for him last night. 100,000 of 3.1 million. That's 3.2% of the population.
And of that 3.2%, only *half* voted for him.
Granted, a Republican caucus with blistering cold temperatures isn't a bellweather for what might happen in a general election. But I just wanted to point out the numbers because it makes me feel better.
Perhaps Trump telling people that they should go out in life-threatening conditions and vote, and if they die, it will have been worth it to have voted for him finally turned some people off?
Nah, who am I kidding, his diehard supporters would martyr themselves and feel smug that they died for a "righteous cause."
CBS was reviewing some polling that was done at the caucus and very interestingly, a small majority of Nikki Haley voters say that if it’s between Trump and Biden- they’ll vote Biden.
The Never Trumpers are behind Haley, which we knew. But a majority of the ones that showed up in Iowa say that they’ll vote BIDEN over Trump. Considering how small the margin is, and the worry that once again, “progressives” will vote 3rd party, that small share of GOP voters may make the difference. As said above- Trump needs EVERY single 2020 voter he had, and at least in Iowa, they didn’t all show up.
People will say one thing to a pollster while doing something different in the polling booth. Remember 2016. We've seen several republicans rebuke Trump since 2016 only to kiss the ring at crunch time. And that includes the same Mitt Romney being hailed as "heroic" - the guy who only changed his tune when his attempts to suck up to Trump for a cabinet post fell through.
Iowa voter on Ramaswamy: "I’m not being prejudiced, guys, but I don’t like his name. I don’t like where he came from. After 9/11, I still harbor a lot of hard feelings."
And yet these are the people Vivek has decided are "his people" and has cast his lot with. Same as Nimrata Randhawa....and Piyuish Jindal. At least Vivek had the confidence to use his own name though....
Always blows me away how guys like Vivek convince themselves that they're actually welcome in the Republican party as anything other racism shields.....
If the GOP wasn't deeply white supremacist, I think we'd be in real trouble. I mean, there are TONS of conservatives who are black and brown, and the only reason they don't vote republican is because of the racism. If the GOP were to suddenly become inclusive of all the homophobes, misogynists, and libertarian capitalists of color, we'd be fucked.
Republican Party is all about white nationalism and there are a few black and brown people that are deeply confused (or like Vivek in it for the grifting opportunity’s) but big majority especially black and Asian voters vote democratic. Don’t see that changing for many decades. It’s about scaring white people and keeping them scared so they don’t notice all the tax cuts and deregulation for the Republican donor class.
My takeaway: only about 100,000 people voted IN TOTAL. Only about 50,000 delusional people in a primary in a crazy part of the country (see, e.g., Cruz, Santorum, Huckabee) voted for the orange stain.
How do we pay so much attention to this contest? More people than that will likely vote in my Congressional primary in Houston.
The media spends so much time telling us this is a story without pointing out the context of how small a sample size this is.
In deference to non-crazy Iowans (which I like to think I am) Democrats at least elected viable candidates in their previous caucuses. We correctly chose the party's eventual nominee 7 out of the last 11 contests. Arguably, Obama wouldn't have gotten a foothold had he not won here in 2008.
But, yeah. Our time has passed. Iowa - while obviously not a fair demographic representation of the country - at least used to carry a kind of political pragmatism that made us a more reliable harbinger. Historically, Iowa has actually been pretty progressive. But things broke loose after Obama was elected. Republicans went nuts and the state's reputation went with it.
All fair, but let's not pretend the polling literally everywhere else doesn't show basically the same results for Trump in the primaries. Trump's support is cult-like - you can't say the same for either Haley or DeSantis, who, notwithstanding the relatively tiny turnout, still polled, together with Vivek less than 1/2 of what Trump polled, combined. When was the last time that happened in an open primary? and again, while I agree that Iowa is hardly representative of America (though it very much does represent GOP voters), his performance there also mirrors how he's polling nationally amongst GOP voters.
The bottom line is this - it doesn't matter what stories we tell ourselves about low GOP turnout or lack of enthusiasm, the fact remains that Dems need all their voters to show up and vote. The Dems have had a demographic voting advantage for a generation now, and yet the GOP has still managed to win 3 of the last 6 Presidential elections. And yes, I understand that is mostly due to the Electoral College, but that just shows why every single vote matters. Its why when I read about people refusing to vote because of Biden's stance on Israel, among other things (which sure, criticize it, but do so with the understanding that it simply reflect what has been 70 years of consistent US gov't policy and then ask yourself if the result is any better for you under a GOP president, or more specifically, Trump). Complacency is what put Trump in the WH in the first place. And Democratic voters have a tendency to allow perfect to get in the way of good (or at least better than the alternative) which is what we saw in 2016 - and my fear is that there are enough short memories in this country that it could happen again.
That’s why the Dems changed the primary order, because WHY are we letting a handful of white people from Iowa or New Hampshire have first choice of candidate?
the problem is that for Democrats, the media narrative gives far too much power to two small, overwhelmingly white and rural states that in almost no way reflect the Democrats' voting coalition - its always been the media narrative that made grand pronouncements about candidates on the basis of these otherwise inconsequential states. Biden wisely ignored them and focused on South Carolina, which ultimately handed him the nomination.
The disproportionate weight afforded to these small states is also a problem for the GOP but to a lesser extent since these states do reflect the GOP's overwhelmingly white, old and rural voter base.
I’m sure Ramaswamy still entertains dreams of being named the Veep running mate. Little does he realize that Trump either doesn't acknowledge that he exists or doesn't care or, most likely, both.
The result shows again what a huge force evangelicals are in Iowa Republican politics. They are sticking with the former guy because, according to their myopic, self-agrandizing world view, he is the one who can save them from a country where kids are taught to hate America and to persecute god-fearing Christians. He actually announced yesterday morning that he's going to win the caususes for the third time (because Ted Cruz cheated, don't ya know) and said people should venture out to vote for him eveen if it killed them. Their level of unreality is so bent they compare him to Jesus, when the fact is , he's Jim Jones.
It was always going to be Donald. It was always going to be him. Too many cult members and many of the few "principled" republicans that DON'T want Donald will just skip the primary altogether. So, it'll be a Biden v. Trump 2: Electric Boogaloo. God help us all.
This is the least surprising outcome ever. And I wish the media would stop asking republican voters questions. THEY'RE TROLLING YOU BECAUSE THEY HATE YOU! Nobody actually believes that 2020 was stolen. They just hate the media and only believe in democracy when it gives them what they want. The only upside to all this is watching "Meatball Ron" flailing so badly. I can't help thinking that had Toad Dick not been running he'd be doing better. But he's not. His campaign is just culture war bullshit 24/7. I don't think that can win and I hope that even most republican voters understand that. But the more likely possibility is that they just want "revenge" for 2020.
You are giving many of the republican voters waaaay too much credit if you don't think a lot of them don't believe the 2020 election was stolen. I agree that most politicians don't actually believe it (but even there not all of them), but a good number of the people on the street who think TFG can do no wrong absolutely think it was stolen because that's what they have been told.
The terrifying part is that Trump supporters are trumpeting this overwhelming "win". I can't tell if it's ignorance of what this was, or just standard bluster. They seem to think everyone voted.
Whatever you think of the turnout, he still won more than his competitors combined. When was the last time that happened in an open primary/caucus? How else would you characterize it other than "overwhelming".
People are treating this caucus as if Trump wasn't ostensibly the Republican incumbent. A candidate losing after his first term and running again is not something we've seen in modern politics. It's not as if he came into this contest on equal footing with everyone else.
To have already once been President and to only get 51% of the vote? Not great.
And they will, once he's confirmed as the nominee, same as in every other election cycle. What do you think happens when the primaries are done? Voters coalesce around the nominee.
Again, I don't understand this desire to pretend that this result was anything other exactly the blowout that's been predicted for months.
That's because you don't like Trump, which is fair - neither do I, but I'm struggling to understand this desire to pretend that he's not winning this in a cakewalk. In any open electoral contest held in any nominally democratic country, one candidate winning a majority of the votes in a multi-candidate election featuring at least 2 other high profile candidates would be considered a blowout - especially as his vote total was 30% higher than the 2nd place finisher. Which again, closely tracks almost all of the polling in this race (which if you remember, a year ago had De Santis leading by 20 points which was called a "massive" lead at the time. Trump won this primary by 30 points, without attending a single debate and by barely showing up in the state
If Biden had won any primary with 51% of the votes in 2020, it would've been referred to in the same terms. The fact remains, Trump won Iowa handily, and is expected to romp to the nomination. Trying to diminish his victory in Iowa won't change that.
I completely understand the desire to parse the results for any good news we can find, but the bottom line is polling consistently showed Trump having a 30 point lead over De Santis and Haley, including polling higher than their combined numbers and that's how it played out in Iowa. It ultimately doesn't matter if "only 51% of the voters" chose Trump - he'll still be the nominee and likely 100% of those GOP voters will cast for him when the general election comes. It really is that simple.
I think it is good news. We’ve seen in every election since Dobbs a decline in GOP enthusiasm and turnout. In 2023, there wasn’t a single election anywhere in the country where the GOP outperformed, and many places where they lost.
According to the Daily Kos special election tracker, Democrats have outperformed 2020, an election we won by 4.5 points, by an average of 6 points in 37 special state house elections across the US. I could bullet point out a whole list, but everyone knows the wins since Dobbs.
This decline of GOP voters is what we want to see, and I take it as really good news that in the first primary, GOP turnout was much lower than expected and Trump only got 51%. Of course he was always going to win, but Iowa GOP voters weren’t rushing to vote for him. I think that is good news.
On a very micro level, our community voted in a bunch of anti-vax wackos to our school board in 2021. By 2023, every vulnerable candidate was replaced with a progressive.
It might very well be good news - as long as Democrats don't treat it as a reason to be complacent. It has LONG been the case that the Democrats' voting base is larger than the Republicans and its likely a permanent advantage (or at least generational) as Republicans have leaned into being the party of scared angry, racist, homophobic, misogynistic under educated white people. However, that has in no way stopped them from being competitive. We talk about how the GOP underperformed in the midterms, and yet they still hold an (albeit razor thin) congressional majority and the Dems a less then Senate majority and the Dems face tough climb to maintain those gains in 2024.
I'm just saying now is not the time for Democrats or progressives to take their feet off the gas - every vote still matters as much as it ever did and nothing can be taken for granted. There is plenty of time for Democrats/Progressives to still step on rakes before Nov 2024.
Sadly, I will agree with you on that. I think more people will back the party first and hold their nose when it comes to Trump because they just hate Democrats that much.
Or (hopefully) some of them who cannot bring themselves vote for a democrat either don't vote for a candidate for president or vote third party as a protest. That may make a big difference in a close election (for example look at 2016).
55K people. This was a subset of a subset of a subset. What this proved is that the policies are not popular, the delivery is. Haley, DeSantis, even Vivek could probably sugar coat the policies and get more of them passed, particularly given the media's absolute love of both sides narratives. However his supporters don't care about policy. They want bluster, they want cruelty, they want chaos. They want the people they don't like to hurt. That's what he offers them.
My hope is that outside of those people, there are enough people who don't want that. My fear is that political memories are so short that the exhaustion with Trump's antics has faded. People are unhappy with the state of the nation and the world, and the driving love of change for change's sake is going to result in a second term for this monster.
Discount the turnout all you want, but the only people that matter in an election are the ones that show up. This is what people, particular Democrats, keep forgetting - the election happens whether or not you bother to vote, so staying home doesn't prove anything. There's no minimum required turnout for elections - if 10% of the electorate shows up then they get to decide who the winner is. We know that there are far more Democratic voters than Republican voters in America and yet there is an almost evenly divided Congress and Presidential elections are generally won by razor thing margins. Why? Because Republican voters show up, period.
Besides, its not like the polling anywhere else looks any better for Haley or DeSantis. The turnout may have been poor, but the result pretty much tracks all the national GOP primary polling.
You do realize this was a Republican caucus right? I'm discounting turnout because Dems didn't show up, nor should they.
There is not an evenly divided congress because of equal turnout either. The 50 Senate seats controlled by Dems represent millions more people than the republican counterparts. Same with the house, where gerrymandering and an artificial cap on the size of the house favors Republicans.
Presidential races are not won by razor thin margins. The media portrays a horse race, but when all was said and done, the 2020 race wasn't really that close.
Trump is going to be the nominee. He was always going to be the nominee. This is no surprise and the trumpeting of victory is a ploy to make Trump seem more popular than he actually is. This is the bleating of the loud and entitled minority of voters who think only their votes ever matter.
I completely understand it was a Republican caucus. My point was that it doesn't matter how low the turnout is (and that Democrats need to remember that for a general - moral victories won't shit if Trump is re-elected), because regardless of the election, the only people who matter are the ones who show up - that's a fact. In this case, its irrelevant how low the turnout is, because the caucus still happened regardless. There's no quorum or minimum required turnout for elections, so guess what? Trump gets to claim he won more votes than his opponents combined and that's true - nitpicking at the data might feel good, but it doesn't change the result. - especially as that result almost perfectly lined up with all the polling. Even if there were hundreds of thousands of De Santis/Haley voters out there, who could've impacted the caucuses, what does it say that they stayed home, while Trump's supporters braved insane conditions to make sure their votes counted? Certainly doesn't suggest deep and abiding support for his opponents.
As for the General, yes, I'm fully aware that the voting numbers were not as close as the narrative suggested (though in any sane country, someone like Trump should be losing by 30 points to a mainstream candidate like Biden, instead of by small single digits). But the vagaries of the US electoral system means that despite those numbers, the election actually turned on a small number of votes in a few key states - it's how Hillary lost in 2016 despite also winning several million more votes than Trump. The same is expected in 2024.
As for the messaging from the Trump camp, its clearly a ploy to encourage Haley and DeSantis to drop out and clear the path for Trump - and guess what? It will probably work. GOP voters especially like to believe they're voting for a "winner" - that's been his mantra (whether true or not) that he always "wins" and he simply reinforces the message to people (and gets it reinforced for him by RW media) who don't ever see or hear anything to contradict it.
You think donors are seeing DeSantis lose by 30 points in the state he put all his effort into and think its worth continuing to put money in? Even in Haley's case, her claim to be more focused on NH or SC is simply stalling for time since Trump is outpolling her by 30 points in both states. If Haley, as expected gets crushed in her home state, where she was a former governor, in what world are donors looking at a result like that and thinking she's still worth backing?
I think we're generally in agreement that Trump is getting this nomination and while I do agree that the media makes far too much of the Iowa caucuses generally, I just don't get the point of all this data parsing about low turnout, etc when the final results still mostly mirror what the polling was showing and its not like the low turnout for caucuses is any indication that voters will stay home in the general or that the state will turn blue. If the GOP has shown us anything since 2016, its that they all fall in line when crunch time hits.
Go home, Vivek! Carry your ass back to (checks notes) Ohio?! Dang it, guess he’s Ohio’s problem again. Here’s hoping he campaigns a bunch with Bernie Moreno (pronounced More-ee-no, so the racists forget he’s Venezuelan) and rubs his loser stank all over that smarmy literal used car salesman.
I got annoyed I saw Andrew Yang out there saying pushing for the lesser of two evils is evil and we need to support the forward party. I need that man to go away.
7% (or less) of registered repubs voted for trump.
Not a sweeping victory for an incumbent and also why is Iowa still doing these caucuses? Completely understand why repubs kept it as their first primary because it’s demographics align perfect with the party. White, evangelical and older. Win win win for the gop. The voting system is just so antiquated and non conducive for participating.
Also worth noting the generational cold and snow storm that hit yesterday - some reports suggested it was the coldest caucuses in history. And, even if you focus on the fact that 7% of registered GOP voters voted for him, none of his opponents achieved even 1/2 that number on their own. Also worth noting that the caucus results lined up pretty closely with the polling in that state.
You'd do well not to read the results as anything other than a confirmation of Trump's hold on that party.
He’s an incumbent in that he was president and has 100% name recognition and most of his voters think he got reflected in 2020 :-)
Anyway huge sums spent and bad turnout. The whole thing is kind of a waste of money and time since there is no path for Haley or Ron D and I think they’re both (at this point) doing this more for 2028 then 2024. Lots of people jockeying to be the heir-apparent to trump and who knows maybe he’ll pick one for his VP slot. I doubt it but stranger things have happened. I think the whole repub party has go bow and scrape to trump for now. They need his maga base and they are probably a bit scared of the unhinged violence that could be directed towards them if they push back to hard. So for now they endorse him and hope he keels over or gets sent to jail.
I understand, but the fact remains that it is technically an open primary. And yes, given his seemingly iron grip on the GOP one would think you'd see number more reflective of a Putin re-election campaign in Russia, the fact is, by American standards taking 51% of the vote in a multi-candidate vote in which the 2nd place finisher was 30 point behind you qualifies as a blow-out. Whatever we think of them, neither Haley nor De Santis are considered "fringe" candidates so its a legitimate drubbing. And in any event, the margin of victory is irrelevant because they'll all fall in line and support him when the time comes. So yes, there is a pointlessness to this exercise and it speaks to just how ridiculous the party has become it is having a supposedly competitive primary race in which none of the candidates are even willing to mildly criticize the frontrunner who is kicking their asses while obstensibly ignoring them completely. But then the GOP is so far past shame at this point that you have to wonder if they have some kind of humiliation kink.
Winning 98 out of 99 counties (and basically only losing that county by one vote) is exactly the kind of firepower Trump is looking for to proclaim his inevitability.
He'll scream up and down how he won 51% of the vote and destroyed the competition. But the fact of the matter is only 100,000 Iowans showed up for him last night. 100,000 of 3.1 million. That's 3.2% of the population.
And of that 3.2%, only *half* voted for him.
Granted, a Republican caucus with blistering cold temperatures isn't a bellweather for what might happen in a general election. But I just wanted to point out the numbers because it makes me feel better.
Perhaps Trump telling people that they should go out in life-threatening conditions and vote, and if they die, it will have been worth it to have voted for him finally turned some people off?
Nah, who am I kidding, his diehard supporters would martyr themselves and feel smug that they died for a "righteous cause."
I came here to say this precisely. His polling numbers don't mean shit.
CBS was reviewing some polling that was done at the caucus and very interestingly, a small majority of Nikki Haley voters say that if it’s between Trump and Biden- they’ll vote Biden.
The Never Trumpers are behind Haley, which we knew. But a majority of the ones that showed up in Iowa say that they’ll vote BIDEN over Trump. Considering how small the margin is, and the worry that once again, “progressives” will vote 3rd party, that small share of GOP voters may make the difference. As said above- Trump needs EVERY single 2020 voter he had, and at least in Iowa, they didn’t all show up.
People will say one thing to a pollster while doing something different in the polling booth. Remember 2016. We've seen several republicans rebuke Trump since 2016 only to kiss the ring at crunch time. And that includes the same Mitt Romney being hailed as "heroic" - the guy who only changed his tune when his attempts to suck up to Trump for a cabinet post fell through.
Will Saletan (wsaletan on Threads)
@saletan
Iowa voter on Ramaswamy: "I’m not being prejudiced, guys, but I don’t like his name. I don’t like where he came from. After 9/11, I still harbor a lot of hard feelings."
He made himself a token, and tokens always get spent…
9/11? But... his family is from India... He's not even Muslim he's Hindu... he was born in OHIO.
Some people's ignorance is just... baffling.
And yet these are the people Vivek has decided are "his people" and has cast his lot with. Same as Nimrata Randhawa....and Piyuish Jindal. At least Vivek had the confidence to use his own name though....
Always blows me away how guys like Vivek convince themselves that they're actually welcome in the Republican party as anything other racism shields.....
If the GOP wasn't deeply white supremacist, I think we'd be in real trouble. I mean, there are TONS of conservatives who are black and brown, and the only reason they don't vote republican is because of the racism. If the GOP were to suddenly become inclusive of all the homophobes, misogynists, and libertarian capitalists of color, we'd be fucked.
Republican Party is all about white nationalism and there are a few black and brown people that are deeply confused (or like Vivek in it for the grifting opportunity’s) but big majority especially black and Asian voters vote democratic. Don’t see that changing for many decades. It’s about scaring white people and keeping them scared so they don’t notice all the tax cuts and deregulation for the Republican donor class.
This is why parody as a weapon is useless.
"I'm not being prejudiced, guys, I've just made a pre-judgment about someone I don't know based on his name. Totally different."
Not even his name
His skin color.
If only there was a word for that kind of person... 🤔
My takeaway: only about 100,000 people voted IN TOTAL. Only about 50,000 delusional people in a primary in a crazy part of the country (see, e.g., Cruz, Santorum, Huckabee) voted for the orange stain.
How do we pay so much attention to this contest? More people than that will likely vote in my Congressional primary in Houston.
The media spends so much time telling us this is a story without pointing out the context of how small a sample size this is.
In deference to non-crazy Iowans (which I like to think I am) Democrats at least elected viable candidates in their previous caucuses. We correctly chose the party's eventual nominee 7 out of the last 11 contests. Arguably, Obama wouldn't have gotten a foothold had he not won here in 2008.
But, yeah. Our time has passed. Iowa - while obviously not a fair demographic representation of the country - at least used to carry a kind of political pragmatism that made us a more reliable harbinger. Historically, Iowa has actually been pretty progressive. But things broke loose after Obama was elected. Republicans went nuts and the state's reputation went with it.
All fair, but let's not pretend the polling literally everywhere else doesn't show basically the same results for Trump in the primaries. Trump's support is cult-like - you can't say the same for either Haley or DeSantis, who, notwithstanding the relatively tiny turnout, still polled, together with Vivek less than 1/2 of what Trump polled, combined. When was the last time that happened in an open primary? and again, while I agree that Iowa is hardly representative of America (though it very much does represent GOP voters), his performance there also mirrors how he's polling nationally amongst GOP voters.
The bottom line is this - it doesn't matter what stories we tell ourselves about low GOP turnout or lack of enthusiasm, the fact remains that Dems need all their voters to show up and vote. The Dems have had a demographic voting advantage for a generation now, and yet the GOP has still managed to win 3 of the last 6 Presidential elections. And yes, I understand that is mostly due to the Electoral College, but that just shows why every single vote matters. Its why when I read about people refusing to vote because of Biden's stance on Israel, among other things (which sure, criticize it, but do so with the understanding that it simply reflect what has been 70 years of consistent US gov't policy and then ask yourself if the result is any better for you under a GOP president, or more specifically, Trump). Complacency is what put Trump in the WH in the first place. And Democratic voters have a tendency to allow perfect to get in the way of good (or at least better than the alternative) which is what we saw in 2016 - and my fear is that there are enough short memories in this country that it could happen again.
That’s why the Dems changed the primary order, because WHY are we letting a handful of white people from Iowa or New Hampshire have first choice of candidate?
the problem is that for Democrats, the media narrative gives far too much power to two small, overwhelmingly white and rural states that in almost no way reflect the Democrats' voting coalition - its always been the media narrative that made grand pronouncements about candidates on the basis of these otherwise inconsequential states. Biden wisely ignored them and focused on South Carolina, which ultimately handed him the nomination.
The disproportionate weight afforded to these small states is also a problem for the GOP but to a lesser extent since these states do reflect the GOP's overwhelmingly white, old and rural voter base.
I’m sure Ramaswamy still entertains dreams of being named the Veep running mate. Little does he realize that Trump either doesn't acknowledge that he exists or doesn't care or, most likely, both.
After last night he has to see that Trump despises him. He’s not even getting a cabinet position.
The result shows again what a huge force evangelicals are in Iowa Republican politics. They are sticking with the former guy because, according to their myopic, self-agrandizing world view, he is the one who can save them from a country where kids are taught to hate America and to persecute god-fearing Christians. He actually announced yesterday morning that he's going to win the caususes for the third time (because Ted Cruz cheated, don't ya know) and said people should venture out to vote for him eveen if it killed them. Their level of unreality is so bent they compare him to Jesus, when the fact is , he's Jim Jones.
It was always going to be Donald. It was always going to be him. Too many cult members and many of the few "principled" republicans that DON'T want Donald will just skip the primary altogether. So, it'll be a Biden v. Trump 2: Electric Boogaloo. God help us all.
This is the least surprising outcome ever. And I wish the media would stop asking republican voters questions. THEY'RE TROLLING YOU BECAUSE THEY HATE YOU! Nobody actually believes that 2020 was stolen. They just hate the media and only believe in democracy when it gives them what they want. The only upside to all this is watching "Meatball Ron" flailing so badly. I can't help thinking that had Toad Dick not been running he'd be doing better. But he's not. His campaign is just culture war bullshit 24/7. I don't think that can win and I hope that even most republican voters understand that. But the more likely possibility is that they just want "revenge" for 2020.
You are giving many of the republican voters waaaay too much credit if you don't think a lot of them don't believe the 2020 election was stolen. I agree that most politicians don't actually believe it (but even there not all of them), but a good number of the people on the street who think TFG can do no wrong absolutely think it was stolen because that's what they have been told.
The terrifying part is that Trump supporters are trumpeting this overwhelming "win". I can't tell if it's ignorance of what this was, or just standard bluster. They seem to think everyone voted.
.
It's probably both.
Whatever you think of the turnout, he still won more than his competitors combined. When was the last time that happened in an open primary/caucus? How else would you characterize it other than "overwhelming".
People are treating this caucus as if Trump wasn't ostensibly the Republican incumbent. A candidate losing after his first term and running again is not something we've seen in modern politics. It's not as if he came into this contest on equal footing with everyone else.
To have already once been President and to only get 51% of the vote? Not great.
51% of HIS OWN PARTY'S vote even. He needs a greater % of Republicans to vote for him if he wants a chance in hell.
And they will, once he's confirmed as the nominee, same as in every other election cycle. What do you think happens when the primaries are done? Voters coalesce around the nominee.
Again, I don't understand this desire to pretend that this result was anything other exactly the blowout that's been predicted for months.
I have trouble calling something a blowout when almost half the caucus goers favored someone other then Trump.
That's because you don't like Trump, which is fair - neither do I, but I'm struggling to understand this desire to pretend that he's not winning this in a cakewalk. In any open electoral contest held in any nominally democratic country, one candidate winning a majority of the votes in a multi-candidate election featuring at least 2 other high profile candidates would be considered a blowout - especially as his vote total was 30% higher than the 2nd place finisher. Which again, closely tracks almost all of the polling in this race (which if you remember, a year ago had De Santis leading by 20 points which was called a "massive" lead at the time. Trump won this primary by 30 points, without attending a single debate and by barely showing up in the state
If Biden had won any primary with 51% of the votes in 2020, it would've been referred to in the same terms. The fact remains, Trump won Iowa handily, and is expected to romp to the nomination. Trying to diminish his victory in Iowa won't change that.
I completely understand the desire to parse the results for any good news we can find, but the bottom line is polling consistently showed Trump having a 30 point lead over De Santis and Haley, including polling higher than their combined numbers and that's how it played out in Iowa. It ultimately doesn't matter if "only 51% of the voters" chose Trump - he'll still be the nominee and likely 100% of those GOP voters will cast for him when the general election comes. It really is that simple.
I think it is good news. We’ve seen in every election since Dobbs a decline in GOP enthusiasm and turnout. In 2023, there wasn’t a single election anywhere in the country where the GOP outperformed, and many places where they lost.
According to the Daily Kos special election tracker, Democrats have outperformed 2020, an election we won by 4.5 points, by an average of 6 points in 37 special state house elections across the US. I could bullet point out a whole list, but everyone knows the wins since Dobbs.
This decline of GOP voters is what we want to see, and I take it as really good news that in the first primary, GOP turnout was much lower than expected and Trump only got 51%. Of course he was always going to win, but Iowa GOP voters weren’t rushing to vote for him. I think that is good news.
There's a little something to this.
On a very micro level, our community voted in a bunch of anti-vax wackos to our school board in 2021. By 2023, every vulnerable candidate was replaced with a progressive.
Mine too.
Hey look at Florida last night. I’m happy.
It might very well be good news - as long as Democrats don't treat it as a reason to be complacent. It has LONG been the case that the Democrats' voting base is larger than the Republicans and its likely a permanent advantage (or at least generational) as Republicans have leaned into being the party of scared angry, racist, homophobic, misogynistic under educated white people. However, that has in no way stopped them from being competitive. We talk about how the GOP underperformed in the midterms, and yet they still hold an (albeit razor thin) congressional majority and the Dems a less then Senate majority and the Dems face tough climb to maintain those gains in 2024.
I'm just saying now is not the time for Democrats or progressives to take their feet off the gas - every vote still matters as much as it ever did and nothing can be taken for granted. There is plenty of time for Democrats/Progressives to still step on rakes before Nov 2024.
Sadly, I will agree with you on that. I think more people will back the party first and hold their nose when it comes to Trump because they just hate Democrats that much.
Or (hopefully) some of them who cannot bring themselves vote for a democrat either don't vote for a candidate for president or vote third party as a protest. That may make a big difference in a close election (for example look at 2016).
55K people. This was a subset of a subset of a subset. What this proved is that the policies are not popular, the delivery is. Haley, DeSantis, even Vivek could probably sugar coat the policies and get more of them passed, particularly given the media's absolute love of both sides narratives. However his supporters don't care about policy. They want bluster, they want cruelty, they want chaos. They want the people they don't like to hurt. That's what he offers them.
My hope is that outside of those people, there are enough people who don't want that. My fear is that political memories are so short that the exhaustion with Trump's antics has faded. People are unhappy with the state of the nation and the world, and the driving love of change for change's sake is going to result in a second term for this monster.
Discount the turnout all you want, but the only people that matter in an election are the ones that show up. This is what people, particular Democrats, keep forgetting - the election happens whether or not you bother to vote, so staying home doesn't prove anything. There's no minimum required turnout for elections - if 10% of the electorate shows up then they get to decide who the winner is. We know that there are far more Democratic voters than Republican voters in America and yet there is an almost evenly divided Congress and Presidential elections are generally won by razor thing margins. Why? Because Republican voters show up, period.
Besides, its not like the polling anywhere else looks any better for Haley or DeSantis. The turnout may have been poor, but the result pretty much tracks all the national GOP primary polling.
You do realize this was a Republican caucus right? I'm discounting turnout because Dems didn't show up, nor should they.
There is not an evenly divided congress because of equal turnout either. The 50 Senate seats controlled by Dems represent millions more people than the republican counterparts. Same with the house, where gerrymandering and an artificial cap on the size of the house favors Republicans.
Presidential races are not won by razor thin margins. The media portrays a horse race, but when all was said and done, the 2020 race wasn't really that close.
Trump is going to be the nominee. He was always going to be the nominee. This is no surprise and the trumpeting of victory is a ploy to make Trump seem more popular than he actually is. This is the bleating of the loud and entitled minority of voters who think only their votes ever matter.
I completely understand it was a Republican caucus. My point was that it doesn't matter how low the turnout is (and that Democrats need to remember that for a general - moral victories won't shit if Trump is re-elected), because regardless of the election, the only people who matter are the ones who show up - that's a fact. In this case, its irrelevant how low the turnout is, because the caucus still happened regardless. There's no quorum or minimum required turnout for elections, so guess what? Trump gets to claim he won more votes than his opponents combined and that's true - nitpicking at the data might feel good, but it doesn't change the result. - especially as that result almost perfectly lined up with all the polling. Even if there were hundreds of thousands of De Santis/Haley voters out there, who could've impacted the caucuses, what does it say that they stayed home, while Trump's supporters braved insane conditions to make sure their votes counted? Certainly doesn't suggest deep and abiding support for his opponents.
As for the General, yes, I'm fully aware that the voting numbers were not as close as the narrative suggested (though in any sane country, someone like Trump should be losing by 30 points to a mainstream candidate like Biden, instead of by small single digits). But the vagaries of the US electoral system means that despite those numbers, the election actually turned on a small number of votes in a few key states - it's how Hillary lost in 2016 despite also winning several million more votes than Trump. The same is expected in 2024.
As for the messaging from the Trump camp, its clearly a ploy to encourage Haley and DeSantis to drop out and clear the path for Trump - and guess what? It will probably work. GOP voters especially like to believe they're voting for a "winner" - that's been his mantra (whether true or not) that he always "wins" and he simply reinforces the message to people (and gets it reinforced for him by RW media) who don't ever see or hear anything to contradict it.
You think donors are seeing DeSantis lose by 30 points in the state he put all his effort into and think its worth continuing to put money in? Even in Haley's case, her claim to be more focused on NH or SC is simply stalling for time since Trump is outpolling her by 30 points in both states. If Haley, as expected gets crushed in her home state, where she was a former governor, in what world are donors looking at a result like that and thinking she's still worth backing?
I think we're generally in agreement that Trump is getting this nomination and while I do agree that the media makes far too much of the Iowa caucuses generally, I just don't get the point of all this data parsing about low turnout, etc when the final results still mostly mirror what the polling was showing and its not like the low turnout for caucuses is any indication that voters will stay home in the general or that the state will turn blue. If the GOP has shown us anything since 2016, its that they all fall in line when crunch time hits.
For those who are curious, registered voters in Iowa as of Nov. 2023, Republican Party: 718,901.
Roughly, 100k braved the cold. 50k for someone willing to step over their dead, frozen corpses on his way to a restaurant for a nice overcooked steak.
Also in 2016, there were 186k total votes. This year there were only 110k.
Go home, Vivek! Carry your ass back to (checks notes) Ohio?! Dang it, guess he’s Ohio’s problem again. Here’s hoping he campaigns a bunch with Bernie Moreno (pronounced More-ee-no, so the racists forget he’s Venezuelan) and rubs his loser stank all over that smarmy literal used car salesman.
I got annoyed I saw Andrew Yang out there saying pushing for the lesser of two evils is evil and we need to support the forward party. I need that man to go away.
When Trump was told Vivek was on the phone tp "concede", he got that look I get when mom says "Don't forget your 3:30 dental appointment."
2,083,000 registered voters in Iowa
718,000 registered Republicans
110,000 voted
56, 219 voted for trump
7% (or less) of registered repubs voted for trump.
Not a sweeping victory for an incumbent and also why is Iowa still doing these caucuses? Completely understand why repubs kept it as their first primary because it’s demographics align perfect with the party. White, evangelical and older. Win win win for the gop. The voting system is just so antiquated and non conducive for participating.
He's not an incumbent. It was an open primary.
Also worth noting the generational cold and snow storm that hit yesterday - some reports suggested it was the coldest caucuses in history. And, even if you focus on the fact that 7% of registered GOP voters voted for him, none of his opponents achieved even 1/2 that number on their own. Also worth noting that the caucus results lined up pretty closely with the polling in that state.
You'd do well not to read the results as anything other than a confirmation of Trump's hold on that party.
He’s an incumbent in that he was president and has 100% name recognition and most of his voters think he got reflected in 2020 :-)
Anyway huge sums spent and bad turnout. The whole thing is kind of a waste of money and time since there is no path for Haley or Ron D and I think they’re both (at this point) doing this more for 2028 then 2024. Lots of people jockeying to be the heir-apparent to trump and who knows maybe he’ll pick one for his VP slot. I doubt it but stranger things have happened. I think the whole repub party has go bow and scrape to trump for now. They need his maga base and they are probably a bit scared of the unhinged violence that could be directed towards them if they push back to hard. So for now they endorse him and hope he keels over or gets sent to jail.
I understand, but the fact remains that it is technically an open primary. And yes, given his seemingly iron grip on the GOP one would think you'd see number more reflective of a Putin re-election campaign in Russia, the fact is, by American standards taking 51% of the vote in a multi-candidate vote in which the 2nd place finisher was 30 point behind you qualifies as a blow-out. Whatever we think of them, neither Haley nor De Santis are considered "fringe" candidates so its a legitimate drubbing. And in any event, the margin of victory is irrelevant because they'll all fall in line and support him when the time comes. So yes, there is a pointlessness to this exercise and it speaks to just how ridiculous the party has become it is having a supposedly competitive primary race in which none of the candidates are even willing to mildly criticize the frontrunner who is kicking their asses while obstensibly ignoring them completely. But then the GOP is so far past shame at this point that you have to wonder if they have some kind of humiliation kink.
No different than th
I got nothing. Le sigh.