You guys, it's so affordable to own a house! Here's how I did it: My husband already owned a house when we were married, so we sold that to cover the down payment. We bought a broken-down piece of shit house and fixed it up, because we are both handy, and we don't have kids so we had the time to dedicate to it. And then since we already had the house, we were able to jump on the super-low interest rates during lockdown.
That's all you need: already own a house, have tons of extra time, and a global pandemic! ANYONE CAN DO IT. BOOTSTRAPS.
The number of people I went to college with that neither paid for college nor their down payment for their first house which was a graduation present is pretty goddamn high. I don't begrudge anyone for taking the leg up given, I do begrudge the friends that think they did it all on their own.
Had a good paying government job and married a woman who also had a good paying government job,
Emptied out my savings to get enough for a down payment that was less than 20%, but thanks to my military service I didn't have PMI (all of which was necessary because I live in HCOL area)
Bought a fixer-upper that is still a huge work in progress years later because it was literally the only thing we could afford,
And now my wife and I both work full time to afford our mortgage, even though we regularly overdraw our account making the mortgage payment and went from having no credit card debt to having mid-5 figures of credit card debt.
If I may ask a question. Did you look into VA loans? I'm not trying to be a smartass, as someone who has processed mortgages for over 20 years, I've had several situations where friends who didn't think they could buy a home did with a VA loan.
The market sucks on both ends. The rates are high and they are not hiring right now. It's like the last bubble in 2008 when I didn't work for 2 years and thought I could go back to college, finish my degree and get a better job. Welp. went right back to mortgages because I had skills and it paid better than entry level. Now it's happened again and I haven't worked for....2 years.
The rates are going to go down again soon. Then lenders will be slobbering all over themselves to get new loans by offering crazy refinance rates so you should be able to consolidate your CC's and mortgage into one payment. I'm sure that's not what you want to hear and I'm sorry that this happened, but if you can ride it out, it should get better.
Either that or look for a Credit union with a military link and get a Home Equity Line of Credit. I'm not sure what your Loan amount is vs the value of your home, but it could work and the HELOC rate is much lower than a credit card. Good luck.
I don't understand why kids don't do what we did when we bought our house. All they need is a time machine they can steer to Indiana in 2001, some gumption, and a dream.
Even then we were stupid lucky to buy with a low down payment and a low fixed interest rate, and we never had the kids we planned on, so we had time and money to keep it up and pay it off. Most of our neighbors lost their homes in 2008/2009, we got lucky again and managed to get through it. Indiana was an extremely cheap place to live at the time, even in this sad shitty state you can't get a little house in a cozy neighborhood for less than $4ook.
My parents bought their home in 1972, their neighborhood was designed and built for the working class families employed by the local factory. Many of the families I grew up with still live there, long after the factory stopped being a reliable source of a middle class income, including my dad. Affordable housing is good for everyone.
I think Harris will be great tonight but I also worry how the media is going to somehow make it seem tied or a toss up. Or criticize her for not fact-checking Trump, when how are you supposed to fact-check ramblings of a sundowning psycho?
We know that's how it's going to roll. Try to not let it get under your skin. Michelle Obama said it was going to get hard, we were going to feel deflated, but we keep pushing forward and working for this election. I have a lot of unvarnished hope. I do not believe the race is as tight as the polls would indicate given polling is never statistically sound as a methodology. The small sample sizes, the sampling frame, how they sample are all flawed and would never pass mustard as real science to draw any real conclusions.
I've published this too many times to count in the past year: There have been 35+ special elections since 2022. In every single one the Democratic candidate has OUTPERFORMED the polls every single time. They have won over 80% of the elections. Yes the gerrymandering is that bad. Polls are not accurate and haven't been for a while. Remember Trump only won in 2016 because of the Electoral College he has never won the popular vote. In fact the only time the GOP has won the popular vote in recent history has been total votes for the House in 2022. That is not going to happen this time around. Don't get happy and relax, show up and vote, but remember the polls have consistently been WRONG since 2016.
"...or at least the NYTimes managed to write about it yesterday."
Lawrence O'Donnell addressed this by pointing out that not only did they attempt to "sanewash" Trump's incomprehensible childcare statement in the same article, they also legitimized Trump's suggestion that tariffs will be a tax paid by foreign countries. And apparently his voters either don't care or most likely don't know that the money is paid by American citizens when we buy these products.
So hey, thanks for that NYT. Real bang-up job there.
Let's be honest here. Kamala can't "win" the debate - not because she won't outperform Trump, but rather because (a) he's held to a much much lower standard of "success" and (b) his utterly incoherent manner of arguing (he doesn't "debate")in that format makes it extremely to convincingly score a "win".
Trump himself has proven that debates really don't matter in terms of substance and yet its once again the Democrats who are completely filled with angst about this and undoubtedly ready to abandon ship if Harris does anything short of the impossible and score a decisive and indisputable "win" tonight. Its ridiculous. She will be better prepared, have a far far greater understanding of the issues and can speak far more eloquently and intelligently than Trump on his best day and yet that's not what the narrative will be tomorrow.
ALL of the pressure is on her and none of it is on him - he won't lose a single vote by his debate performance whereas as we've seen already with Biden, her support could collapse because Democrats will abandon her if she's anything less than perfect.
I hope I'm wrong, but nothing in recent history gives me any reason to believe that I will be.
It reminds me of the family dynamic when there are two kids and one is known to be responsible and a rule-follower and helpful, while the other is constantly in trouble, prone to anger, and generally the "problem child". The problem child takes up so much time and sucks up all of the air in the room that the parents tiptoe around them, and praise them for the simplest things, like getting a C in a class instead of failing it, whereas the other child might get a talking-to if they do something mild, like missing curfew. Yes, I'm speaking from experience.
But he really has done himself all the favours by setting the bar of expectations for himself on the floor. If he manages not to trip over it, he's a winner. Whereas unless Kamala sets out a plan to solve all of America's problems while dodging the oaf who will be breathing down her neck and calling her names to her face, she will be seen as a disappointment. I would honestly be so interested to see the prep her and her team have been doing for this thankless and impossible task and wish her all the best. But I will also be focusing on not allowing the media reactions and "hot takes" to make my head explode tomorrow morning.
I think you're generally correct about the dynamic, and it's a good metaphor. I am slightly, slightly hopeful that the debate will bring a larger audience to Trump's increasing incoherence, which was on display in the Biden debate, but will be better highlighted by Harris's youth and poise. The media has mostly stopped covering Trump's rallies because it started to bore everyone, and I think most Americans aren't really aware of how unhinged and rambling he's gotten, and how old he seems. But I agree, the deck is unfairly stacked in his favor.
You're right - that is a key benefit of the debate. So many people have stopped watching him speak (including me) because it's so rage-inducing, and his rallies don't get the coverage they once did. There will be a LOT of people watching tonight, and many of them might not know how much worse he's actually gotten since the last time they were really paying attention to him. That has to be a good thing.
All of this are elements of what are called The Glass Cliff that first leaders of organizations who aren't white men are subjected to. Especially to failing organizations.
Not to put words in Ms. Vice-President's mouth, but ". . her support could collapse because Democrats will abandon her if she's anything less than perfect." is nothing new to her. She's been living it her whole life. I have faith & confidence.
Agreed - she has. This isn't my suggesting she won't do well or won't beat him. She will, because she is one of the most highly competent nominees we've had in years. But then I remember the expereince of a previously highly competent nominee running against Trump and how her own party ultimately let her down because something something she didn't visit Milwaukee enough or some such thing.
More anticipating my likely disappointment in Democratic voters and their "media friends" who help shape these narratives. Again, I reallllllly want to be wrong about this and desperately hope I am.
The NYT can go spit. I agree the debate isn't going to move the scales. It's certainly possible the media spin after the fact will have an impact, though. And we can no longer count on the NYT to provide an honest take.
I continue to be amazed and distressed by the line "people know Trump but they don't know who Kamala Harris is." Really? I mean, if you know Trump, then you should be willing to vote for a rutabaga ferchrissakes. Also, this business about voters believing Trump represents change is totally baffling. It's like hoping for a wildfire because you're tired of raking leaves.
There's still the Allan Lichtman prediction which says Harris will win. Not a means to get complacent, but hopefully a motivator for those paying attention who want to get out and do something.
The Progressive Turnout Project has data on the effectiveness of their postcard campaigns; they've done a lot of work studying the timing of their mailings, and the effectiveness of different messages. The increases they've measured in turnout are not eyepoppingly huge, but in a close election, it doesn't take many extra votes to make a difference. And in their FAQ, they say "most people don't look at the postmark."
PTP has signed up enough volunteers for all of this election's postcards already, but I have extra postcard stamps, so I'll be looking for another mailing project; I'll be interested to see what data the other campaigns might have on their effectiveness.
As a Georgia voter, I'd say it's... complicated. On one hand, it's kinda nice to see the support and motivation from other parts of the country, and the postcards are often cute. All this attention can be fun to receive! On the other hand, the wording is where it can get tricky. Sometimes it can come across as unintentionally condescending, like a pat on the head and you-go-girl from a "superior" blue state. (Okay, that sounds not so great, but I can't think of any examples of what to say or not to say!)
FWIW, I've mentioned before that I volunteer with the Georgia Postcard Project -- https://www.gapostcard.org/. We always need stamp donations! On my postcards, I usually make a point of using words like "fellow Georgian" and "neighbor" to signal that I'm here too. They have similar groups in NC, MI, and WI, if you'd like to check them out. One thing I really like about our postcards is that in lieu of catchy, fancy-designs on the back, they contain specific information about registering, early voting dates, and who to contact if you encounter problems.
All that said... it's just my opinion, and I definitely can't speak for all of us in swing states. If you want to write postcards, please do! Think of it this way: it probably won't *hurt*, but it just might *help*! Plus, it really is satisfying to actually DO something instead of just donating money or whatnot. :)
I'm trying to maintain joy and enthusiasm. The debate has me nervous, so I'm hosting a debate party with a few other people who are nervous too. I even have champagne ready for a toast when she wipes the floor with him (fingers crossed). I'm also trying to attend all the localish rallies. Just attended a rally with the Second Gentleman. Wish I could make it to see VP Harris later this week. Doing some letter writing. Starting to see Harris/Walz signs go up in the neighborhood too...
I have zero expectations about the debate because even if she wipes the floor with him, as MSNBC said, all he has to do is show up and zip up his pants. I do think a couple of things: Trump is not gaining any new voters either way; obviously the media will be THE WORST; Harris will still gain new voters either way; and I truly believe there are a ton of secret Harris voters (much like there were a ton of secret Trump voters in 2016) and she will win.
Harris wiping the floor with him will make me feel good. That's enough and and all I'm looking for. We all know how the media will portray it. Maybe I'm naive but like you, I also believe that there are a ton of secret Harris voters.
Stop not giving Kamala Harris credit. She is a very inteilligent woman that has accomplished a lot despite being a first generation american person of colour. Forget about Trump and what the media will do to normalize this guys. They have been doing this for years at this point. They will not stop now.
Just look at Kamala and know she is doing a great job . September will be along month, but October will look much brighter I tell you. From now on, do not allow Trump any near your thoughts. He thrives on attention. Instead of giving it to him, lavish it onto to Kamala.
Every time you get angry at Trump, just post something noce about Kamala.
I have to say I don't think the biggest barrier to home ownership is a down payment, but the monthly payment. I'm an older single millennial, and while I have large savings, I can't afford to spend almost 40-50% of my monthly salary on a mortgage so will likely be stuck in my studio condo unless I move to nowhere, Oklahoma.
Respectfully disagree as I'm in the opposite position. I spend more in rent than a mortgage payment would be, but have zero savings and live paycheck to paycheck with two kids. My wife and I make six figures on paper, but with childcare, student loans, credit card debt, expenses, etc, we're literally down to the last 2-300 dollars between us pretty regularly. Our credit rating is shit because of all this and the down payment requirement to get a loan would likely be 20-30k. We'd need a family member to die and leave us money to see that much liquid any time in the next decade.
I sucked it up and got a multiroom condo when I bought and sucked it up and got a roommate. It sucks but it does allow for more space and eventually they do leave. Money is still tight but it's all mine.
Yes, exactly this. I wouldn't have been able to buy my tiny condo without the small amount I inherited plus my savings (my down payment was 30k at 10%). If I were living in a studio apartment, my monthly payments would be cheaper, for the next 2 years, then it would be equal. Then after a couple of more years it would have been more expensive. This includes mortgage plus HOA (since it's a condo; if just a mortgage, it would be cheaper). This is at an 8% interest rate (yes, I will refinance). Interest rates are a lot lower now. You have to calculate the long term; whether it makes sense to put more savings down to lower your monthly; and look at graphing (i.e., at what year does it turn to more profitable for you to own rather than rent, usually around year 5). Of course none of this helps if you simply don't have the monthly cash right now to make that larger payment. If that's the case, keep building your savings until the market gets to a point where rent is comparative to a mortgage, put a bigger downpayment on it from your bigger savings, which will lower your monthly.
I will add then when I bought, I definitely had buyers remorse, felt boondoggled. What did I do? I'd have so much more money if I had just kept renting! Do I even own anything or am I just paying a much higher rent to a bank, but with less savings now?!?! Now a year later, the rents are almost just as much as monthly payment and going up each year, but my payment is staying the same, and I'm starting to feel reassured in decision. So I get it! But I was also lucky that I got about 20k in inheritance to cover that down payment. Most people don't have that, so the Harris/Walz 25k will be super helpful.
5% down? What? The last time I looked into a mortgage (a couple of years ago) the bank wanted a solid 20%. The 80-20 mortgage type that I got when I bought my condo in 2005 no longer exists.
2023 research from the National Association of Realtors cites an 8% down payment for first-time buyers. It's 19% for repeat buyers, which makes sense because they likely have equity to roll into a second purchase.
Yes correct. I just bought about a year ago. I was being offered as low as 3% from lenders (I mortgage shopped). I did 10% because I could. I heard from my realtors that most people are putting 3-8% down. I do think it depends on your credit score and type of property. But 20% is not normal (though for some lenders it's expected, especially for a condo).
I think it can also depend on your credit score. If it's good, you can get away with a lower down payment. I know I did. I wouldn't also be shocked if they also figure in the cost of housing in the area. I live in the Boston suburbs, and small homes are in the $500K range. Most people don't have more than 10% down unless they currently own a home.
My hope for the debate is that Harris is somewhere between a prosecutor's cross examination and an example of how to deal with that senile racist uncle at Thanksgiving.
"Yes Donald, we know. The immigrants are performing post birth abortions by eating the babies.... now, have some carrots"
I'm sorry, but the whole racist Haitian immigrant thing is so ridiculous I thought it was a joke at first. All of a sudden people from Haiti are eating cats and dogs - even though there's never been even racist propaganda of anything like that before last week - and not only are they eating cats and dogs - they're eating NEIGHBORHOOD cats and dogs, presumably taking them from the hands of children and the elderly.
And yes, I know there are people who "believe" this - although I strongly suspect most of them don't really believe it - but gods damn, how low do you have to be to use this kind of racist bullshit? Trump and Vance truly have never stopped trying to see how much lower they can go.
At this point, a bad poll is nothing more than clickbait. Either people don't believe it and are outraged or people believe and celebrate it. Conflict ensues.
I try to tell myself to ignore them, but my hindbrain has a hard time with that - which is why The New York Times continues to get away with this shit.
I'm glad Harris has a housing platform, but do I have doubts about the efficacy of the down payment strategy. Most states have some type of mortgage program, often with down payment assistance, for low and moderate income home homebuyers. The problem is often that the income limits are still too low for many people who will still struggle to buy a home, and there's a huge shortage of homes that are in reasonable shape and within purchase price limits for these programs. I don't think the Harris proposal is a bad idea, especially in the form of a grant vs a loan like some other programs, but we need to tackle our housing shortage issues to actually make homeownership more affordable and help renter households. (To be fair, their larger housing plan does have some reasonable suggestions on that front, but I'm not seeing anything paradigm shifting).
Maybe not paradigm shifting, but the National Housing Conference seems excited about their plan and considers both her and Walz long-time housing advocates, so not a one and done kind of thing for them, but that fixing housing will likely be a priority for their administration. https://nhc.org/the-harris-walz-housing-plan-detailed-serious-and-impactful/
I don't know the last time it was that you looked into those down payment assistant programs, and every state is different. But as someone who did look into them recently across several states (albeit all in the west), they seemed pretty good for a starter place (meaning single person or new couple with no kids yet). And the ones that are loans actually don't require you to pay them back (only if you don't stay in the place for an x amount of years--2-5 typically). And I didn't see income being a factor, more that it had to be a first time buy. From what I understand of the Harris/Walz payment assistance, it would be a boon. And it would cover those who may be excluded from other programs because of some of the criteria you mention (though as I said, those were not the criteria I saw, but again, each state is different, and her's would be a national program).
I do have some industry experience with those programs, with the caveat that I'm on the East Coast. I'm guessing all of the state mortgage programs will have income limits - I believe it's related to Fannie Mae secondary loan purchase requirements. The ones I'm familiar with have a down payment assistance loan that is paid back when the home sells or the mortgage is paid off.
If I'm wrong and the Harris proposal wouldn't have income limits, I'm still generally skeptical of how this will improve on existing programs, and especially the promise I've seen to award assistance for first-time homebuyers who have paid their rent on time for two years, because that sounds administratively very challenging to verify.
I am a Harris fan, and I do think that her administration will be good advocates for affordable housing in general, and appoint people who are experts. It's great that she's proposed cracking down on software that helps landlords collude to fix rent prices. I just think this specific plan is going to need some adjustments to be workable, and we need other solutions to increase our supply.
That's so interesting! As a federal program, I'm sure she'll have to tweak it since it seems the different states all have different requirements. Definitely the ones on the west coast that I looked out were "secondary loans" but with no expectation of paying back as long as you stayed in the home a certain minimum time period. And of course besides first time home buyers, there were other programs for teachers, veterans, low income (in Seattle area that was less than 100k I believe) etc.
The media is going to give Trump a pass like they always do because their billionaire owners demand it. Unless Kamala fucking kills it beyond all shred of doubt they will both sides this debate so hard, I am already tired.
You guys, it's so affordable to own a house! Here's how I did it: My husband already owned a house when we were married, so we sold that to cover the down payment. We bought a broken-down piece of shit house and fixed it up, because we are both handy, and we don't have kids so we had the time to dedicate to it. And then since we already had the house, we were able to jump on the super-low interest rates during lockdown.
That's all you need: already own a house, have tons of extra time, and a global pandemic! ANYONE CAN DO IT. BOOTSTRAPS.
The number of people I went to college with that neither paid for college nor their down payment for their first house which was a graduation present is pretty goddamn high. I don't begrudge anyone for taking the leg up given, I do begrudge the friends that think they did it all on their own.
100%. Take the leg up. But admit you had a leg up.
I did something similar except,
I lived with roommates until I was 39,
Didn't buy until I was in my 40's,
Had a good paying government job and married a woman who also had a good paying government job,
Emptied out my savings to get enough for a down payment that was less than 20%, but thanks to my military service I didn't have PMI (all of which was necessary because I live in HCOL area)
Bought a fixer-upper that is still a huge work in progress years later because it was literally the only thing we could afford,
And now my wife and I both work full time to afford our mortgage, even though we regularly overdraw our account making the mortgage payment and went from having no credit card debt to having mid-5 figures of credit card debt.
Easy!
If I may ask a question. Did you look into VA loans? I'm not trying to be a smartass, as someone who has processed mortgages for over 20 years, I've had several situations where friends who didn't think they could buy a home did with a VA loan.
The market sucks on both ends. The rates are high and they are not hiring right now. It's like the last bubble in 2008 when I didn't work for 2 years and thought I could go back to college, finish my degree and get a better job. Welp. went right back to mortgages because I had skills and it paid better than entry level. Now it's happened again and I haven't worked for....2 years.
The rates are going to go down again soon. Then lenders will be slobbering all over themselves to get new loans by offering crazy refinance rates so you should be able to consolidate your CC's and mortgage into one payment. I'm sure that's not what you want to hear and I'm sorry that this happened, but if you can ride it out, it should get better.
Either that or look for a Credit union with a military link and get a Home Equity Line of Credit. I'm not sure what your Loan amount is vs the value of your home, but it could work and the HELOC rate is much lower than a credit card. Good luck.
I don't understand why kids don't do what we did when we bought our house. All they need is a time machine they can steer to Indiana in 2001, some gumption, and a dream.
Even then we were stupid lucky to buy with a low down payment and a low fixed interest rate, and we never had the kids we planned on, so we had time and money to keep it up and pay it off. Most of our neighbors lost their homes in 2008/2009, we got lucky again and managed to get through it. Indiana was an extremely cheap place to live at the time, even in this sad shitty state you can't get a little house in a cozy neighborhood for less than $4ook.
My parents bought their home in 1972, their neighborhood was designed and built for the working class families employed by the local factory. Many of the families I grew up with still live there, long after the factory stopped being a reliable source of a middle class income, including my dad. Affordable housing is good for everyone.
I think Harris will be great tonight but I also worry how the media is going to somehow make it seem tied or a toss up. Or criticize her for not fact-checking Trump, when how are you supposed to fact-check ramblings of a sundowning psycho?
We know that's how it's going to roll. Try to not let it get under your skin. Michelle Obama said it was going to get hard, we were going to feel deflated, but we keep pushing forward and working for this election. I have a lot of unvarnished hope. I do not believe the race is as tight as the polls would indicate given polling is never statistically sound as a methodology. The small sample sizes, the sampling frame, how they sample are all flawed and would never pass mustard as real science to draw any real conclusions.
I've published this too many times to count in the past year: There have been 35+ special elections since 2022. In every single one the Democratic candidate has OUTPERFORMED the polls every single time. They have won over 80% of the elections. Yes the gerrymandering is that bad. Polls are not accurate and haven't been for a while. Remember Trump only won in 2016 because of the Electoral College he has never won the popular vote. In fact the only time the GOP has won the popular vote in recent history has been total votes for the House in 2022. That is not going to happen this time around. Don't get happy and relax, show up and vote, but remember the polls have consistently been WRONG since 2016.
"...or at least the NYTimes managed to write about it yesterday."
Lawrence O'Donnell addressed this by pointing out that not only did they attempt to "sanewash" Trump's incomprehensible childcare statement in the same article, they also legitimized Trump's suggestion that tariffs will be a tax paid by foreign countries. And apparently his voters either don't care or most likely don't know that the money is paid by American citizens when we buy these products.
So hey, thanks for that NYT. Real bang-up job there.
I encourage everyone to use 'sanewash' in your conversations about the convicted felon from here until Harris is sworn in.
Let's be honest here. Kamala can't "win" the debate - not because she won't outperform Trump, but rather because (a) he's held to a much much lower standard of "success" and (b) his utterly incoherent manner of arguing (he doesn't "debate")in that format makes it extremely to convincingly score a "win".
Trump himself has proven that debates really don't matter in terms of substance and yet its once again the Democrats who are completely filled with angst about this and undoubtedly ready to abandon ship if Harris does anything short of the impossible and score a decisive and indisputable "win" tonight. Its ridiculous. She will be better prepared, have a far far greater understanding of the issues and can speak far more eloquently and intelligently than Trump on his best day and yet that's not what the narrative will be tomorrow.
ALL of the pressure is on her and none of it is on him - he won't lose a single vote by his debate performance whereas as we've seen already with Biden, her support could collapse because Democrats will abandon her if she's anything less than perfect.
I hope I'm wrong, but nothing in recent history gives me any reason to believe that I will be.
It reminds me of the family dynamic when there are two kids and one is known to be responsible and a rule-follower and helpful, while the other is constantly in trouble, prone to anger, and generally the "problem child". The problem child takes up so much time and sucks up all of the air in the room that the parents tiptoe around them, and praise them for the simplest things, like getting a C in a class instead of failing it, whereas the other child might get a talking-to if they do something mild, like missing curfew. Yes, I'm speaking from experience.
But he really has done himself all the favours by setting the bar of expectations for himself on the floor. If he manages not to trip over it, he's a winner. Whereas unless Kamala sets out a plan to solve all of America's problems while dodging the oaf who will be breathing down her neck and calling her names to her face, she will be seen as a disappointment. I would honestly be so interested to see the prep her and her team have been doing for this thankless and impossible task and wish her all the best. But I will also be focusing on not allowing the media reactions and "hot takes" to make my head explode tomorrow morning.
I think you're generally correct about the dynamic, and it's a good metaphor. I am slightly, slightly hopeful that the debate will bring a larger audience to Trump's increasing incoherence, which was on display in the Biden debate, but will be better highlighted by Harris's youth and poise. The media has mostly stopped covering Trump's rallies because it started to bore everyone, and I think most Americans aren't really aware of how unhinged and rambling he's gotten, and how old he seems. But I agree, the deck is unfairly stacked in his favor.
You're right - that is a key benefit of the debate. So many people have stopped watching him speak (including me) because it's so rage-inducing, and his rallies don't get the coverage they once did. There will be a LOT of people watching tonight, and many of them might not know how much worse he's actually gotten since the last time they were really paying attention to him. That has to be a good thing.
All of this are elements of what are called The Glass Cliff that first leaders of organizations who aren't white men are subjected to. Especially to failing organizations.
Not to put words in Ms. Vice-President's mouth, but ". . her support could collapse because Democrats will abandon her if she's anything less than perfect." is nothing new to her. She's been living it her whole life. I have faith & confidence.
Agreed - she has. This isn't my suggesting she won't do well or won't beat him. She will, because she is one of the most highly competent nominees we've had in years. But then I remember the expereince of a previously highly competent nominee running against Trump and how her own party ultimately let her down because something something she didn't visit Milwaukee enough or some such thing.
More anticipating my likely disappointment in Democratic voters and their "media friends" who help shape these narratives. Again, I reallllllly want to be wrong about this and desperately hope I am.
The NYT can go spit. I agree the debate isn't going to move the scales. It's certainly possible the media spin after the fact will have an impact, though. And we can no longer count on the NYT to provide an honest take.
I continue to be amazed and distressed by the line "people know Trump but they don't know who Kamala Harris is." Really? I mean, if you know Trump, then you should be willing to vote for a rutabaga ferchrissakes. Also, this business about voters believing Trump represents change is totally baffling. It's like hoping for a wildfire because you're tired of raking leaves.
F them. I've just about had it with those biased a-holes. I just went online & stopped my subscription. (yaaaay me! :) )
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saw this someplace on Reddit last night...can't find it now though. just in Threads. apologies in advance.
https://www.threads.net/@ecmclaughlin/post/C9S-yNFS7-w
Fire is literally change. :-) I read it in chemistry class.
Change in big, bloody, flaming letters.
There's still the Allan Lichtman prediction which says Harris will win. Not a means to get complacent, but hopefully a motivator for those paying attention who want to get out and do something.
I have his prediction bookmarked and read it when the anxiety level starts to rise.
I'm in a blue area that doesn't need me to door knock etc. Does sending postcards really help? Especially if they are coming from out of state?
The Progressive Turnout Project has data on the effectiveness of their postcard campaigns; they've done a lot of work studying the timing of their mailings, and the effectiveness of different messages. The increases they've measured in turnout are not eyepoppingly huge, but in a close election, it doesn't take many extra votes to make a difference. And in their FAQ, they say "most people don't look at the postmark."
PTP has signed up enough volunteers for all of this election's postcards already, but I have extra postcard stamps, so I'll be looking for another mailing project; I'll be interested to see what data the other campaigns might have on their effectiveness.
As a Georgia voter, I'd say it's... complicated. On one hand, it's kinda nice to see the support and motivation from other parts of the country, and the postcards are often cute. All this attention can be fun to receive! On the other hand, the wording is where it can get tricky. Sometimes it can come across as unintentionally condescending, like a pat on the head and you-go-girl from a "superior" blue state. (Okay, that sounds not so great, but I can't think of any examples of what to say or not to say!)
FWIW, I've mentioned before that I volunteer with the Georgia Postcard Project -- https://www.gapostcard.org/. We always need stamp donations! On my postcards, I usually make a point of using words like "fellow Georgian" and "neighbor" to signal that I'm here too. They have similar groups in NC, MI, and WI, if you'd like to check them out. One thing I really like about our postcards is that in lieu of catchy, fancy-designs on the back, they contain specific information about registering, early voting dates, and who to contact if you encounter problems.
All that said... it's just my opinion, and I definitely can't speak for all of us in swing states. If you want to write postcards, please do! Think of it this way: it probably won't *hurt*, but it just might *help*! Plus, it really is satisfying to actually DO something instead of just donating money or whatnot. :)
I'm trying to maintain joy and enthusiasm. The debate has me nervous, so I'm hosting a debate party with a few other people who are nervous too. I even have champagne ready for a toast when she wipes the floor with him (fingers crossed). I'm also trying to attend all the localish rallies. Just attended a rally with the Second Gentleman. Wish I could make it to see VP Harris later this week. Doing some letter writing. Starting to see Harris/Walz signs go up in the neighborhood too...
I have zero expectations about the debate because even if she wipes the floor with him, as MSNBC said, all he has to do is show up and zip up his pants. I do think a couple of things: Trump is not gaining any new voters either way; obviously the media will be THE WORST; Harris will still gain new voters either way; and I truly believe there are a ton of secret Harris voters (much like there were a ton of secret Trump voters in 2016) and she will win.
Harris wiping the floor with him will make me feel good. That's enough and and all I'm looking for. We all know how the media will portray it. Maybe I'm naive but like you, I also believe that there are a ton of secret Harris voters.
Stop not giving Kamala Harris credit. She is a very inteilligent woman that has accomplished a lot despite being a first generation american person of colour. Forget about Trump and what the media will do to normalize this guys. They have been doing this for years at this point. They will not stop now.
Just look at Kamala and know she is doing a great job . September will be along month, but October will look much brighter I tell you. From now on, do not allow Trump any near your thoughts. He thrives on attention. Instead of giving it to him, lavish it onto to Kamala.
Every time you get angry at Trump, just post something noce about Kamala.
I have to say I don't think the biggest barrier to home ownership is a down payment, but the monthly payment. I'm an older single millennial, and while I have large savings, I can't afford to spend almost 40-50% of my monthly salary on a mortgage so will likely be stuck in my studio condo unless I move to nowhere, Oklahoma.
Respectfully disagree as I'm in the opposite position. I spend more in rent than a mortgage payment would be, but have zero savings and live paycheck to paycheck with two kids. My wife and I make six figures on paper, but with childcare, student loans, credit card debt, expenses, etc, we're literally down to the last 2-300 dollars between us pretty regularly. Our credit rating is shit because of all this and the down payment requirement to get a loan would likely be 20-30k. We'd need a family member to die and leave us money to see that much liquid any time in the next decade.
There are very few metro areas left where it's cheaper to buy a house than it is to rent. https://www.redfin.com/news/rent-vs-own-2023/
If you live in a rural area I'm sure this is different.
I sucked it up and got a multiroom condo when I bought and sucked it up and got a roommate. It sucks but it does allow for more space and eventually they do leave. Money is still tight but it's all mine.
Rent prices have been skyrocketing so the monthly payment isn't the barrier you may think it is in many areas.
Yes, exactly this. I wouldn't have been able to buy my tiny condo without the small amount I inherited plus my savings (my down payment was 30k at 10%). If I were living in a studio apartment, my monthly payments would be cheaper, for the next 2 years, then it would be equal. Then after a couple of more years it would have been more expensive. This includes mortgage plus HOA (since it's a condo; if just a mortgage, it would be cheaper). This is at an 8% interest rate (yes, I will refinance). Interest rates are a lot lower now. You have to calculate the long term; whether it makes sense to put more savings down to lower your monthly; and look at graphing (i.e., at what year does it turn to more profitable for you to own rather than rent, usually around year 5). Of course none of this helps if you simply don't have the monthly cash right now to make that larger payment. If that's the case, keep building your savings until the market gets to a point where rent is comparative to a mortgage, put a bigger downpayment on it from your bigger savings, which will lower your monthly.
I will add then when I bought, I definitely had buyers remorse, felt boondoggled. What did I do? I'd have so much more money if I had just kept renting! Do I even own anything or am I just paying a much higher rent to a bank, but with less savings now?!?! Now a year later, the rents are almost just as much as monthly payment and going up each year, but my payment is staying the same, and I'm starting to feel reassured in decision. So I get it! But I was also lucky that I got about 20k in inheritance to cover that down payment. Most people don't have that, so the Harris/Walz 25k will be super helpful.
5% down? What? The last time I looked into a mortgage (a couple of years ago) the bank wanted a solid 20%. The 80-20 mortgage type that I got when I bought my condo in 2005 no longer exists.
2023 research from the National Association of Realtors cites an 8% down payment for first-time buyers. It's 19% for repeat buyers, which makes sense because they likely have equity to roll into a second purchase.
It is now 2024. 5% is not super common but still pretty normal. I paid 10%. 20% is not common these days for first time homeowners at least
Yes correct. I just bought about a year ago. I was being offered as low as 3% from lenders (I mortgage shopped). I did 10% because I could. I heard from my realtors that most people are putting 3-8% down. I do think it depends on your credit score and type of property. But 20% is not normal (though for some lenders it's expected, especially for a condo).
I think it can also depend on your credit score. If it's good, you can get away with a lower down payment. I know I did. I wouldn't also be shocked if they also figure in the cost of housing in the area. I live in the Boston suburbs, and small homes are in the $500K range. Most people don't have more than 10% down unless they currently own a home.
My hope for the debate is that Harris is somewhere between a prosecutor's cross examination and an example of how to deal with that senile racist uncle at Thanksgiving.
"Yes Donald, we know. The immigrants are performing post birth abortions by eating the babies.... now, have some carrots"
And Dear God I hope it works.
Or: go to bed Donnie. It's night night time.
I'm sorry, but the whole racist Haitian immigrant thing is so ridiculous I thought it was a joke at first. All of a sudden people from Haiti are eating cats and dogs - even though there's never been even racist propaganda of anything like that before last week - and not only are they eating cats and dogs - they're eating NEIGHBORHOOD cats and dogs, presumably taking them from the hands of children and the elderly.
And yes, I know there are people who "believe" this - although I strongly suspect most of them don't really believe it - but gods damn, how low do you have to be to use this kind of racist bullshit? Trump and Vance truly have never stopped trying to see how much lower they can go.
At this point, a bad poll is nothing more than clickbait. Either people don't believe it and are outraged or people believe and celebrate it. Conflict ensues.
I try to tell myself to ignore them, but my hindbrain has a hard time with that - which is why The New York Times continues to get away with this shit.
I'm glad Harris has a housing platform, but do I have doubts about the efficacy of the down payment strategy. Most states have some type of mortgage program, often with down payment assistance, for low and moderate income home homebuyers. The problem is often that the income limits are still too low for many people who will still struggle to buy a home, and there's a huge shortage of homes that are in reasonable shape and within purchase price limits for these programs. I don't think the Harris proposal is a bad idea, especially in the form of a grant vs a loan like some other programs, but we need to tackle our housing shortage issues to actually make homeownership more affordable and help renter households. (To be fair, their larger housing plan does have some reasonable suggestions on that front, but I'm not seeing anything paradigm shifting).
Maybe not paradigm shifting, but the National Housing Conference seems excited about their plan and considers both her and Walz long-time housing advocates, so not a one and done kind of thing for them, but that fixing housing will likely be a priority for their administration. https://nhc.org/the-harris-walz-housing-plan-detailed-serious-and-impactful/
I don't know the last time it was that you looked into those down payment assistant programs, and every state is different. But as someone who did look into them recently across several states (albeit all in the west), they seemed pretty good for a starter place (meaning single person or new couple with no kids yet). And the ones that are loans actually don't require you to pay them back (only if you don't stay in the place for an x amount of years--2-5 typically). And I didn't see income being a factor, more that it had to be a first time buy. From what I understand of the Harris/Walz payment assistance, it would be a boon. And it would cover those who may be excluded from other programs because of some of the criteria you mention (though as I said, those were not the criteria I saw, but again, each state is different, and her's would be a national program).
I do have some industry experience with those programs, with the caveat that I'm on the East Coast. I'm guessing all of the state mortgage programs will have income limits - I believe it's related to Fannie Mae secondary loan purchase requirements. The ones I'm familiar with have a down payment assistance loan that is paid back when the home sells or the mortgage is paid off.
If I'm wrong and the Harris proposal wouldn't have income limits, I'm still generally skeptical of how this will improve on existing programs, and especially the promise I've seen to award assistance for first-time homebuyers who have paid their rent on time for two years, because that sounds administratively very challenging to verify.
I am a Harris fan, and I do think that her administration will be good advocates for affordable housing in general, and appoint people who are experts. It's great that she's proposed cracking down on software that helps landlords collude to fix rent prices. I just think this specific plan is going to need some adjustments to be workable, and we need other solutions to increase our supply.
That's so interesting! As a federal program, I'm sure she'll have to tweak it since it seems the different states all have different requirements. Definitely the ones on the west coast that I looked out were "secondary loans" but with no expectation of paying back as long as you stayed in the home a certain minimum time period. And of course besides first time home buyers, there were other programs for teachers, veterans, low income (in Seattle area that was less than 100k I believe) etc.
The media is going to give Trump a pass like they always do because their billionaire owners demand it. Unless Kamala fucking kills it beyond all shred of doubt they will both sides this debate so hard, I am already tired.